Yes the Postseason is Flawed
Just like with my waistline, expansion isn't always good
First things first: the best teams are still in good shape with the expanded playoff format. Five days off after 162 games in 186 days is a reward, not a curse. On a strategy level, teams get to refresh their bullpens, set up their starting rotations, and rest their everyday players. For players, a five day break is something everyone would take (especially when the alternative is a chance at being eliminated in a best-of-three series with a Wild Card team). That’s a week of sleeping in your own bed, healing scrapes and bruises, and a chance to mentally reset.
The argument that players get rusty after five days off is a weak one. Sure, some players might lose their sharpness after an extended break, but, especially in today’s game, players get rest much more often. This season, 55 players played in 150 or more games. That means out of 270 everyday lineup spots, 20% are occupied regularly. Starting pitchers are doing even less than that. A full season for a pitcher is 32 or more starts in a season. This season 28 pitchers reached that mark, or 19% of rotation slots. Here’s a chart looking at both pitchers’ and hitters’ playing time in ten year increments going back to the beginning of the 162-game schedule:
You could make the “Rest-Equals-Rust” argument in previous decades. But not in 2022 or 2023. They’re simply already taking more days off and seem to be doing just fine with it.
Now look at the results in the first two seasons under this new format. In 2022, the top 2 seeds in the American League advanced to the ALCS after their bye. The National League bye teams both lost, as well as the remaining division winner and top Wild Card team in the first round. Would the Dodgers have beaten the Mets under the old format in a best-of-five? Maybe. The Braves would’ve had a better chance at beating the Cardinals instead of getting bludgeoned by the Phillies.
In 2023, the top seeds’ performance has everyone upset (except Astros fans). But looking closer, none of these are super teams you could’ve penciled into the World Series. The Braves, Dodgers and Orioles had no rotation depth and it showed as their pitchers were unable to keep their opponents in the ballpark. The Rays went through major rotation losses throughout the season. The Dodgers and Rays also had very good players end up in prison (well, soon… allegedly).
So after two seasons where just 3 of 8 teams with the bye advanced to the championship series, and 3 of 8 LCS teams were 5 or 6 seeds in their leagues, is it broken? If MLB insists on this many teams in the postseason, then the best regular season teams are still being rewarded. They don’t have to risk an upset in the Wild Card round and also get home-field advantage against an opponent that has their pitching staff at a disadvantage, plus any injuries that might have happened to their roster in that three game series. The main answer is just play better. But…
There are too many playoff teams now.
By flooding the playoff pool with 85-win teams, you are inviting more chaos and upsets. Baseball is still the most evenly matched sport when it comes to the results of any given matchup. Except for the rare outliers, you can count on every team to win 50 times and lose 50 times during the regular season. The difference between the contenders and those on the outside is how they perform in those 62 games. So the more teams you let in, the more lower the chances your top teams have.
Until 1969, the best record in each league just went straight to the World Series. By then, there were enough teams in the league from coast-to-coast to create divisions. For the next 25 years, each division winner went straight to the League Championship Series. And then they expanded to 28 (and soon 30) teams in 1993, which lead to three divisions per league and the addition of a Wild Card position to the best non-division winning record. That worked well for another 20 years. And then 2011 happened.
For those that don’t remember, the 2011 season featured one of the most dramatic regular season endings in baseball history. Read about it here: https://www.mlb.com/news/remembering-dramatic-final-day-of-2011-season
After the Rays and Cardinals completed dramatic September runs to take the Wild Cards, the league decided it needed more of this. So it added a second Wild Card and manufactured drama with a one-game play-in round. Meaning that in 2011, instead of the Rays and Cardinals triumphing, they both would have locked up Wild Card berths a few days earlier. The last four days of the regular season would have featured no playoff races, just some jockeying for seeding and home field advantage, which isn’t near as exciting as loser-goes-home drama.
That first season, the AL had two Wild Card teams that would have needed a playoff anyway. The Orioles and Rangers both finished 93-69. But the Braves, instead of moving on to the division series against the Reds, had to instead win one game against the Cardinals, who finished 6 games behind them in the standings with the 12th best record in the game. The Braves lost and the Cardinals, a team that would’ve been in 4th place in both the AL East and AL West (last place in the AL West, actually), ended up losing a 7-game series to the Giants in the NLCS.
And now they’ve added a second Wild Card, giving the two best division winners a bye into the Division Series in each league. The remaining division winner and the top Wild Card get to host the two charity teams for a best-of-three series. The common answer to fans of these top seeds who lose in this new format is “just play better”. Which, true, they should beat these teams. And in a seven-game series, probably would. But three games is only slightly less random than the single-game play-in. Just look at the randomness that happens during the regular season. The 56-106 Royals twice completed three-game sweeps of playoff teams. They swept the Twins from 7/28 to 7/30 (they were 29-75 at the start of that series) and the Astros from 9/22-9/24. Would anyone argue the Royals are better than those teams? Or when the A’s, who were 14-50(!) at the time, swept the Brewers in June?
Did we even need this? Just look at the actual pennant race drama we’ve missed out on since they added the second Wild Card:
2012: The AL West race produced month-long excitement as the A’s finished 8-2 to win the division by a game over Texas, who went 3-7 to stumble out of the lead. At the time, if the Orioles got hot, then it’s a win-or-go-home battle for the division. At worst, it’s a battle to see who doesn’t have to play the Yankees in round one, who own the A’s in the playoffs. The season-ending three-game sweep by the A’s of the Rangers was more exciting than any of these play-in rounds so far.
2013: The AL had five teams alive for two spots in the final week. The Tigers won the AL Central with 93 wins, while the Indians (at the time) finished on a 10-game winning streak to get to 92 wins and the top Wild Card spot. Imagine the Game 162 drama that season. The Indians just won 9 in a row to go into that final Sunday one game ahead of the Rays and Rangers. Game 162 had everything you’d want with 3 teams vying for one spot. Instead of being eliminated on the final day, the Rays and Rangers played a one-game playoff where the Rays advanced into another one-game playoff and beat Cleveland to advance to the ALDS. I think the 10-game closing streak to race into the playoffs by one win at the finish line would have been more dramatic, personally.
2014: The Royals win game 162 to take the Wild Card over the A’s. They end up beating the A’s in the play-in game anyways. The Pirates also lose game 162 and tie with the Giants, forcing a one-game playoff for the Wild Card spot. The Pirates were also battling the Cardinals for the division going into the final weekend, but with the expanded format, the Cardinals, Pirates and Giants had all clinched postseason berths five days earlier, leaving the regular season drama dead on the final weekend.
2015: The Cardinals, Pirates and Cubs would’ve had an epic final week with three teams trying to grab two spots. All three teams won 97+ games as the Cubs won the final 8 games of the season.
2016: Proving that this drama would’ve occurred naturally fairly often anyway, both Wild Cards ended with two teams tied and forcing one-game playoffs.
2017: No season ending drama as all 8 playoff spots would’ve been locked up with over a week to go. Instead, both the Diamondbacks and Yankees had to beat teams in one-game playoffs that they’d finished 6 games ahead of in the standings. Drama!
2018: The Dodgers had to sweep the Giants in San Francisco to force a one-game playoff with the Rockies for the division, who made September exciting by winning 9 of their final 10 games. Instead of the win-or-go-home drama of that Game 163, the loser simply went on to play the Cubs in a win-or-go-home game, who also had a Game 163 with the Brewers for the NL Central that, while both teams would’ve been guaranteed playoff spots, determined home field advantage. More drama!
2019: The Brewers and Cardinals battle for the division, as well as the A’s and Rays for the Wild Card, would’ve drawn fans’ attention.
2020: I do not recall this year.
2021: You would’ve had a crazy battle with three AL East teams for one Wild Card spot that would’ve resulted in another legendary chapter added to the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry with a one-game playoff. Also, the 106-win Wild Card Dodgers would’ve been guaranteed a spot in the Division Series instead of having to win a game against the Cardinals, who they were 16 games ahead of in the regular season. That’s fair.
2022: Very little drama. Instead there was a battle for 6th place and the Phillies made the World Series. Welp.
2023: The AL West drama would have been intense all month between the Astros, Rangers and Mariners. With the Rays way ahead of all three in the Wild Card, this would’ve been three teams battling all month for one spot. That’s what pennant races are for. The Rangers and Astros finished tied at 90 wins, but the new rules simply use a tiebreaker instead of a Game 163 (which would have been win-or-go-home). This is so they can get to their made up dramatic Wild Card round quicker. Yay.
Sports are increasingly rewarding mediocrity at the expense of greatness. And the gross part is it’s not because of some notion of fairness or what’s good for the game. It’s literally money. It’s to keep fans of 8th place teams interested just a little bit longer so they can sell a few extra tickets (that they’ll then pocket that money, since if they’re already making the playoffs at 84 wins, why try to improve?). Just look:
· The NBA now allows the 9th and 10th(!!) place teams in each conference to make the postseason. That meant in 2022, the 46-36 Timberwolves had to go through this charade against the 34-48 Spurs. Blech
· The NHL manufactures playoff drama with the divisional playoff format, forcing good teams to play each other early instead of allowing the top teams in each conference a smoother road against lower seeds.
· The NFL just added a 7th team to each conference’s playoff. God forbid we leave the 9-8 Dolphins and Seahawks at home!
· NASCAR constantly reins in their best drivers by resetting points for a playoff schedule that features knockout rounds. Again, manufactured drama.
So all these billionaires are trying to squeeze out some more sponsorship deals and home game revenue. The owners love the extra money these rounds bring in. But these decisions aren’t being made to find out the best team in baseball in a season. These are all made for manufactured drama and to line their pocket books. Because some sucker out there is going to spend $85 on this Marlins postseason hoodie.
But there should still be a threshold to get to the postseason. Four teams per league is taking the top 25% of baseball and letting them have at it. Now we’re giving the top 40% a chance. And that’s where the regular season is being cheapened. Look at this season. The 104-win Braves made it. So did teams with 20 fewer wins, the Marlins and Diamondbacks. Next time, play better in August and earn your chance in October.
End of rant.