When Game 5 Unraveled
The ground ball to first base that somehow became a base hit
The 5th inning of Game 5 of the World Series saw the Yankees go from a 5-0 lead with their ace on the mound, looking to cruise to a win and send the series back to LA down 3-2, to a catastrophe of errors that wound up with 5 unearned runs by the Dodgers to tie the game and ultimately win the game and the championship. Aaron Judge’s error was simple, he took his eye off the ball. Nothing to analyze there. Anthony Volpe’s throw to Jazz Chisholm was a bad throw, but still a bit of a higher difficulty play. Then there was Mookie Betts’ ‘single’ to first, a play that saw Anthony Rizzo field a ball deep behind the bag and Gerrit Cole failing to cover first:
Whose fault was it? Gerrit Cole is taking most blame. It’s an in-between play where both fielders could have gotten confused about what the other was doing. Most of the time, the pitcher would book it to the bag and if the first baseman has it under control, waves him off. But Cole points to the bag as Betts whizzes by.
In hindsight it seems like both men would want a do-over. How often does something like this become a hit? Betts cues if off the end of his bat a few feet from the first base line at 49.8mph. Rizzo is shaded towards the hole and a few steps back of the bag. This season, Betts was in the 31st percentile in sprint speed and averaged 4.5 seconds to first. For comparison, one of the fastest players in the game, Corbin Carroll, averaged 4.09 seconds to first while one of the slowest, Yasmani Grandal, averaged 5.08 seconds.
So I went to Statcast (you can click the link and pull up the same search results) and searched for ground balls hit between 35 and 55mph to first base by right-handed hitters, removing bunts. Of the 177 instances that came up, there were 15 hits, or a .085 batting average. An out was recorded 160 times and there were two errors. And before I get into it more, I think we can all agree that this play by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 100% worse than Rizzo’s, it just happened to not be on the World Series stage:
There was also exactly one extra-base hit, this double by Jose Iglesias. OMG:
I picked right-handed hitters only, since I think a lefty rolling over a grounder to first would prompt the pitcher to start running that way as well, whereas a righty squibbing one the other way is more surprising and maybe can cause a delayed reaction. Also, a left-handed swing is going to produce top spin, and the right-handed contact is usually spinning sideways or off-axis awkwardly, which could delay the first baseman’s pursuit of the ball as he reads the spin. Of the outs made, 60 times it was on a played scored 3-1, meaning the pitcher made the putout at first and thus obviously covered the bag. Nine times resulted in a force out or tag out at a different bag, so those don’t count. That leaves 91 plays like the one in the 5th inning of game 5 that the first baseman took it himself for the out. How many of those were because the pitcher didn’t at least attempt to cover first?
Well I clicked on them all. There is exactly 1 other play where the pitcher didn’t hustle straight to the bag like this play. Ironically, this was also by Mookie Betts on a ground ball to Anthony Rizzo, this time it was Dennis Santana who forgot to cover the bag during the Dodgers-Yankees game on 6/8/24:
Most of the time, the first baseman charges the ball and goes to the bag. It’s only going about 50mph remember. But even then, the pitcher is always at least headed to first base before the out is made or he’s called off. Here’s a similar play that turned into an out made by Gold Glove first baseman Christian Walker:
I watched all of them. About 40% of these are check-swing ground balls that are easy outs. The batter is so delayed by his accidental contact that he doesn’t have time to bust it down the line.
Here’s what I noticed on the rest. First, Rizzo fields this play just about the deepest of any of the plays I saw. Every other first baseman attacked it at an angle where Rizzo goes almost perpendicular to the foul line. Second, except for the Santana pitch above, not one other time did I see a pitcher not run to the bag.
Here’s the most similar looking play I found. It’s a ground out by Kansas City Royals hitter Hunter Renfroe to Detroit Tigers first baseman Bligh Madris, with Tyler Holton pitching:
Renfroe is similar to Betts on the basepaths, with a sprint speed in the 32nd percentile. Madris fields the ball and gets to the bag for the out with Holton headed to first as well. Let’s do a side by side of these two plays to see where it went bad.
Off the bat:
The ball approached the fielder:
The 1B picks up the ball (here’s where it goes sideways):
Time to make the out:
Conclusion: it’s kinda 50/50 whose fault this is. Rizzo takes a conservative path to the ball and as a result, it has a chance to spin and make him hit the brakes to change direction. If he’d come in at more of an angle and attacked the ball before it gets a chance to play him, he’s got it closer to the bag and it’s an easy jog to first.
Cole is basically the only pitcher out of every example I found that is not at least available for a flip to the bag. He inexplicably takes a swooping route and then stops halfway right as Rizzo has to backtrack. So while Rizzo has his head down to watch the spinning ball into his glove, he’s assuming Cole will be at the bag for the toss.
It’s a two-part error. Rizzo plays the ball way too casually and thus turns a play that’s usually a putout into one needing a flip. Cole, forgetting to be in the right position, then isn’t able to bail out Rizzo’s mistake by being at the bag for what by then would be a bang-bang play at first.
This postseason was full of awful fundamentals on defense, and this was the last and costliest example of it. Fielding is something that should be ingrained. You have all of your “if-then” scenarios played out before the pitch is even thrown. You know where you can make an out if a ball is hit to one side of you versus the other. You know where your responsibilities are as far as backing up or covering bags. It should all be muscle memory.
Of course, the Yankees will want to improve their defense at first in the offseason and unfortunately that means Christian Walker will be leaving the desert for the Bronx. 😢
