My Attendance Hypothesis
Using a hypothetical Brewers game in April
As we get into the beginning of the season, like any good scientist, I’ll start with my hypothesis on what the biggest driver of baseball attendance is today.
I believe affordability is the number one factor in whether or not someone goes to a baseball game or not.
In my personal experience, when I ask someone if they want to go to a game, the first response is a variation of “Do you have free tickets?” or “How much are tickets?” In past years, while price was one factor, there were always other things on someone’s mind when the prospect of going to a game came up. “Who’s playing?” “Bobblehead day?” “Who else is coming?” “Only if you promise to make your brother eat a polish sausage filled with mustard.” Okay, that last one may have only been brought up by a certain individual over and over.
Now more than ever, being a baseball fan is inviting yourself to be flipped upside-down and shaken for every last quarter in your pockets. Let’s take the mid-weeknight Brewers-Tigers matchup in Milwaukee this April on Tuesday, April 25. It’s not too bad. Upper deck behind home plate, two seats go for $13.00 apiece.
And the upper deck seats at American Family Field (formerly Miller Park) are really good. Not too steep, and you can see the action relatively well. It’s one of the best upper deck options in the league.
But maybe one of us is afraid of heights, so let’s try to get something in the lower deck. Not the prime seats. Let’s go down the right field line.
Okay. $28.00 to sit face to face with a net and try to chat with Tigers right fielder Austin Meadows all night. You and I are going for the $13 upper deck seats, so we get a birds-eye view of Corbin Burnes’ cutter and Bernie the Brewer sliding into a beer stein (edit: he just slides onto a patio now). We’re going Dutch on this date, so we’ll prepay a $13 general parking pass for $6.50 each. AFF (that’s an unfortunate acronym) doesn’t have any public transportation options besides the bus so I’m driving. You’re good with $19.50 each to get a seat and a parking spot right?
Oh crap. Sorry, I forgot the fees. It’s actually gonna be $24.50 each for upper deck seats and a parking spot. MLB decided you need to pay 25% more on your order because… reasons? Why not just say my ticket is $17 instead of $13? Right, because $17 is a little steep for a mid-April Tuesday-night game against the rebuilding Tigers. Just be honest with me.
Maybe tonight is special. Corbin Burnes is pitching, he’s already 3-0 on the season and Miguel Cabrera is in the lineup with a chance to move into the top 20 in career home runs. We pay the $24.50 each and get to the game on time. With the new pace of play changes we can’t afford to be late and miss a couple innings.
Of course, this game is on a worknight, so I’ve gotta run home, feed the dog and change real quick. We’ll eat at the game. We’re in luck, the Brewers are lowering concession prices this year. So I’ll have a brat for $5.50 and a domestic beer for $8.00. You grab an imported can for $13 and a junior hot dog on their 414 menu for $4. And it’s the first game of the season for me, so I need to refresh my look with a brand new hat since last year’s is all stretched out. And it’s gotta be the New Era 39Thirty brand. Those are the best. Wait. $37.99! It was made in China for like thirty-nine cents (hence the name).
So it’s Tuesday night. A similar game last year drew 22,747 fans to American Family Field (capacity 41,900, or 54.3% full). And you know 10% of that is from corporate tickets the fan in attendance didn’t pay for. It’s also Milwaukee in the spring, so today’s high was 50 degrees with overcast skies. I honestly would have been just fine watching the game from my couch under a blanket with my iPad in my lap and dog sleeping at my feet for free and a six-pack of beer on ice.
This is my best guess as to what keeps fans from going to many games now. Forget the hat, the night still cost me about $45 at a minimum for a beer, a brat and an upper deck seat that, while I just complimented, ain’t worth that much! Can we meet in the middle somewhere? You’re the Brewers, who famously cry poor when it’s time to lock star players up (Josh Hader, etc). The median household income in Milwaukee is $56,417. I’m crying poor, too, because with my rent, gas, groceries, pet food and driving range membership, I’ve barely got any disposable income left. But I’m a single guy who also happens to be a diehard sports fan, so I’ve got plenty of free time.
I can only budget so much to baseball, though. Especially with the Bucks being so good and I need to go to a couple of their games a year (also for an arm and a leg).
This is the problem. When fans complain that players make too much or that billionaire owners are holding out their pockets, they know it’s because this team, valued at $1.6billion by Forbes in 2023, is only valued so high because of us, the fans. Our tickets, our merchandise sales, our eyeballs driving the ad sales on the bloated tv contracts…
It will never happen, but we need to rebalance this relationship a little. It’s America, players should be compensated for their talents and owners should be able to make a solid return on investment. But can we stop being so obnoxious about it? Charge me $5 for that upper deck seat, $5 total for parking in a giant slab of asphalt that isn’t costing you anything anyway. I’ll take a brat for $3 and that Miller Lite 24oz can? I’ll give you $4 for that, because I can get a case of those for $9.99 at 7-11. And that hat needs to be $20. And take whatever code is in your ticket purchasing site that adds these ghost fees and delete it.
There. I’m going to two or three games a month now for $17 a night instead of two to three games a year for the $50 that was squeezed out of me. What would you rather have? $150 per season while I fill 3 seats in 81 home games? Or $300 while I come to 15 games. Probably falling in love with rookie Garrett Mitchell, buying his jersey for $120 and increasing that gross revenue line a little more.
Oh and my friend that came with me? He’s done for the season. He’s a baseball fan but also on a tight budget, so that $50 dent in his checking account is all he is going to remember from tonight. Instead, now I’m going to 15 games, maybe one or two by myself, but often with at least one or two other people, sometimes a huge group of 7 or 8. So my fandom alone is worth a couple-thousand to you and I don’t have to buy chicken breasts discounted with a mysterious Manager’s Special sticker over the expiration date.
Anyways… that’s just a hypothesis.