4/19/23 Home Run Bets

The explanation of how this works is here: Baseball Home Run Betting.

Update: I’ve decided to make two categories just above the spreadsheet. First are the 5 highest odds for players. And second are the players that have an edge as of this morning on FanDuel. The only disclaimer is that these are using odds well before lineups are submitted, so you’d want to check and make sure they’re in the lineup before betting. Getting stuck with a player on a rest day who then pinch hits and loses the bet is rough.

Year-to-Date: 17/94 (51.8% profit)

Last 7 days: 5/27 (42.2%)

Yesterday: 0/1 (-100.0%)

Today’s Highest Predictions

1. Kyle Schwarber - PHI, 27.59% (at White Sox, RHP Mike Clevinger)

2. Byron Buxton - MIN, 24.71% (at Red Sox, RHP Corey Kluber)

3. Matt Chapman - TOR, 22.74% (at Astros, RHP Luis Garcia)

4. Jake Burger - CHW, 22.11% (vs Phillies, RHP Taijuan Walker)

5. Trayce Thompson - LAD, 21.84% (vs Mets, RHP Max Scherzer)

Today’s Sheet

Yesterday’s Highest Predictions with Results

1. Mike Trout - LAA, 27.39% (at Yankees, RHP Clarke Schmidt) - Did not homer

2. Aaron Judge - NYY, 27.33% (vs Angels, LHP Jose Suarez) - Did not homer

3. Kyle Schwarber - PHI, 26.03% (at White Sox, RHP Lucas Giolito) - Did not homer

4. Matt Chapman - TOR, 23.61% (at Astros, RHP Jose Urquidy) - HR! (+330)

5. Carlos Santana - PIT, 22.49% (at Rockies, RHP Jose Urena) - Did not homer