4/18/23 Home Run Bets

The explanation of how this works is here: Baseball Home Run Betting.

There’s two doubleheaders today, but the first Tigers-Guardians game has unqualified pitchers so I pasted game 2 of Phillies-White Sox over those FYI.

Update: I’ve decided to make two categories just above the spreadsheet. First are the 5 highest odds for players. And second are the players that have an edge as of this morning on FanDuel. The only disclaimer is that these are using odds well before lineups are submitted, so you’d want to check and make sure they’re in the lineup before betting. Getting stuck with a player on a rest day who then pinch hits and loses the bet is rough.

Year-to-Date: 17/93 (53.4% profit)

Last 7 days: 6/33 (33.6%)

Yesterday: 1/5 (140.0%)

• Kevin Newman (+1100)

Today’s Highest Predictions

1. Mike Trout - LAA, 27.39% (at Yankees, RHP Clarke Schmidt)

2. Aaron Judge - NYY, 27.33% (vs Angels, LHP Jose Suarez)

3. Kyle Schwarber - PHI, 26.03% (at White Sox, RHP Lucas Giolito)

4. Matt Chapman - TOR, 23.61% (at Astros, RHP Jose Urquidy)

5. Carlos Santana - PIT, 22.49% (at Rockies, RHP Jose Urena)

This Morning’s Bets

These are canceled from now on. The morning odds are a waste of time until lineups come in. Example: Giancarlo Stanton is listed at +255 for the Yankees. He won’t return to the lineup for at least a month.

Today’s Sheet

Yesterday’s Highest Predictions with Results

1. Kyle Schwarber - PHI, 29.11% (at Chicago White Sox, RHP Lance Lynn) - Rained out

2. Luke Raley - TB, 23.11% (at Cincinnati Reds, RHP Hunter Greene) - Did not start

3. Jake Burger - CHW, 22.54% (vs Philadelphia Phillies, RHP Zack Wheeler) - Rained out

4. Trayce Thompson - LAD, 22.32% (vs New York Mets, RHP David Peterson) - No HR

5. Matt Chapman - TOR, 22.04% (at Houston Astros, RHP Cristian Javier) - HR! (+420)

Yesterday Morning’s Bets

• Jon Berti - MIA (listed at +1400, break-even odds are +1260)

  • Did not start

• Michael Massey- KC (listed at +1200, break-even odds are +1060)

  • Did not start

• Trayce Thompson - LAD (listed at +800, break-even odds are +450)

  • Gametime odds were +600, did not homer

• Tomas Nido - NYM (listed at +1060, break-even odds are +930)

  • Gametime odds were +900, did not bet

• J.D. Davis - SF (listed at +600, break-even odds are +580)

  • Gametime odds were +560, did not bet

• Tommy Edman - STL (listed at +1000, break-even odds are +870)

  • Gametime odds were +1060, did not homer