2025 MLB Season Contest!
Plus my picks for the season
This year, I’m not putting actual money on the line, but who doesn’t like making predictions and seeing how quickly they go haywire every season? This year, as this substack keeps growing, I want to do a more interactive way to do my predictions. I’m creating a 2025 MLB Season prediction contest. Entry is free (there are prizes, but no cash is awarded). If you want to join, the link is to a Google Form here:
2025 State of Baseball Prediction Contest
That link provides all the information, but I’ll do a quick rundown here:
Entry is free. Every entry “bets” $1,000 across multiple categories:
Season over/unders for each team ($10 each)
Pick 4 teams to make the playoffs (can be same as your division winners, $25 each)
Pick all 6 division winners ($50 each)
Pick the teams with the most wins and losses ($15 each)
Pick the World Series teams ($50 each) and the winner ($100)
Pick the MVPs and Cy Youngs for each league, as well as the season leaders in home runs, strikeouts and stolen bases ($10 each)
Of course we can’t have a contest without prizes. If I get at least 10 entrants, these will be the prizes. And for paid subscribers, the prizes get sweetened a bit.
Also, for anyone who refers a new subscriber over the course of the season, you can have your pool “upgraded”. For each free subscriber, you get 1% added to your pool. For a paid member, you get 10%. So you could go from $1,000 to $1,010 or even $1,100 in the contest. Here are links to refer new readers!
Alright enough of that business. Lets get to MY predictions for 2025 that all of you will certainly beat since I always go with my heart.
Team Over/Unders
Arizona Diamondbacks, 86.5 wins: OVER
Atlanta Braves, 93.5 wins: OVER
Baltimore Orioles, 86.5 wins: OVER
Boston Red Sox, 86.5 wins: UNDER
Chicago Cubs, 86.5 wins: OVER
Chicago White Sox, 54.5 wins: OVER
Cincinnati Reds, 79.5 wins: UNDER
Cleveland Guardians, 82.5 wins: UNDER
Colorado Rockies, 59.5 wins: OVER
Detroit Tigers, 83.5 wins: OVER
Houston Astros, 86.5 wins: UNDER
Kansas City Royals, 82.5 wins: UNDER
Los Angeles Angels, 72.5 wins: UNDER
Los Angeles Dodgers, 105.5 wins: UNDER
Miami Marlins, 63.5 wins: OVER
Milwaukee Brewers, 82.5 wins: UNDER
Minnesota Twins, 83.5 wins: OVER
New York Mets, 90.5 wins: OVER
New York Yankees, 88.8 wins: OVER
Oakland Athletics, 71.5 wins: UNDER
Philadelphia Phillies, 90.5 wins: OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates, 75.5 wins: UNDER
San Diego Padres, 85.5 wins: OVER
San Francisco Giants, 79.5 wins: UNDER
Seattle Mariners, 85.5 wins: OVER
St Louis Cardinals, 75.5 wins: UNDER
Tampa Bay Rays, 80.5 wins: UNDER
Texas Rangers, 86.5 wins: OVER
Toronto Blue Jays, 79.5 wins: OVER
Washington Nationals, 70.5 wins: OVER
That’s 17 teams on the over and 13 on the under, so I feel pretty good about that. I’m sure the Dodgers will have my under pick be wrong by mid-August, but who knows which arms in that rotation will blow up or not. Also, I think the overs for the White Sox and Rockies are easy picks, it’s very, very hard to be that bad two years in a row. Your young guys learn a lot in seasons like that, just look at the A’s 19-game improvement from 2023 to 2024 despite arguable being a tougher situation in 2024 with the relocation nonsense.
Division Winners
AL East: Blue Jays (+950)
AL Central: Twins (+220)
AL West: Rangers (+190)
NL East: Phillies (+195)
NL Central: Reds (+450)
NL West: Padres (+1200)
I want the Blue Jays to have a good season, they deserve it. They have good players and three really good pitchers in the rotation. Honestly, the rest of the division feels suspect AND Canada will rally around their boys to stick it to us. I just like rooting for the Twins. I think the Rangers will put an end to this Astros reign of terror finally. I’m going Phillies, they’ve got 6 starters (actual healthy starters!). The Reds feel like this year’s random central team to pop up and make a playoff appearance, especially with the Brewers being stagnant and the Cubs being the Cubs. The Padres… please anyone but the Dodgers.
Teams to Make the Playoffs
Blue Jays (+210)
Diamondbacks (-118)
Padres (-102)
Tigers (+104)
I double dipped on the Padres and Blue Jays, but they, and the Diamondbacks, have good teams with uphill battles for the division crown, though will still make the playoffs. The Tigers seem like a safe bet as well.
Pennant Winners
AL: Twins (+1000)
NL: Padres (+1500)
The Twins feel like they’re due for getting hot in October for once. And I’m on year #38 of thinking it’s finally the Padres’ year.
World Series Winner
San Diego Padres (+3300)
But it will finally be their year!
Most Wins/Losses
Wins: Rangers (+3300)
Losses: Cardinals (+6000)
The Rangers should be able to stack up wins in a weak division, and with their luxury air conditioned stadium, stay strong through the dog days of August in that Texas heat. As for the Cardinals, the bottom is gonna drop out of that roster at some point. Maybe they should also rehire Tony La Russa to help the cause like the White Sox did.
Awards
AL MVP: Jose Ramirez (+2200)
NL MVP: Corbin Carroll (+4000)
AL Cy Young: Logan Gilbert (+1200)
NL Cy Young: Hunter Greene (+3000)
Home Run Champ: Bryce Harper (+6500)
Strikeout King: Zack Wheeler (+1200)
Stolen Base Leader: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+2000)
I feel like there’s going to be a little voter fatigue with the Aaron Judge/Shohei Ohtani oversaturation of late. So maybe the voters look at some players from one of the 28 other teams they often forget exist. That leaves Jose Ramirez winning his long overdue first MVP. And Corbin Carroll will be the next 30/70 guy to race his team to the playoffs, winning the Diamondbacks’ first MVP in franchise history.
As for the Cy Youngs, one of those Mariner pitchers has to win at some point. I’ll pick the favorite. And if the Reds are going to win the division, they’ll need this generation’s Johnny Cueto or Jose Rijo to be Hunter Greene, which should get him a Cy Young unless the voters have already prepopulated their ballot with Skenes.
Bryce Harper will summon the power of unpasteurized milk and get a home run crown with 51 bombs. Zack Wheeler keeps mowing hitters down. And Pete Crow-Armstrong is said to be the fastest player in baseball. Time for him to prove it.
Good luck to you… and me!