2023 Predictions and Bets - JUNE 1st UPDATE
aka your annual bonus
Time to check in on those preseason bets where I put $1,000 total. (Original post here). For the over/unders, I’ll use their winning percentage to project the final win total. For the awards, I’ll use the leaders in WAR for now. The pennant and Series winners won’t be scored yet. Let’s see how my picks stand at the 33% pole. Below are the results but for the TLDR crowd my current winnings if the season ended today would be….
-$60.66
Not terrible, a couple over/unders switch to wins and maybe the Mets or Padres start playing to their payroll and I could be in good shape.
Team Over/Unders - (1.6% per team): June 1st = -$144.66 (12 of 30 correct picks)
Arizona Diamondbacks, 75.5 wins (-115over, -105under): OVER
Atlanta Braves, 95.5 (-115, -105): UNDER
Baltimore Orioles, 76.5 (-122, -102): OVER
Boston Red Sox, 78.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Chicago Cubs, 76.5 (-128, +104): UNDER
Chicago White Sox, 83.5 (+106, -130): OVER
Cincinnati Reds, 65.5 (-120, -102): OVER
Cleveland Guardians, 86.5 (-128, +104): OVER
Colorado Rockies, 64.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Detroit Tigers, 69.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Houston Astros, 95.5 (-108, -112): UNDER
Kansas City Royals, 68.5 (-115, -105): UNDER
Los Angeles Angels, 82.5 (-115, -105): OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers, 96.5 (-110, -110): UNDER
Miami Marlins, 75.5 (-122, +100): OVER
Milwaukee Brewers, 86.5 (+110, -134): OVER
Minnesota Twins, 84.5 (-115, -105): OVER
New York Mets, 93.5 (-106, -114): OVER
New York Yankees, 93.5 (-104, -118): UNDER
Oakland Athletics, 59.5 (+100, -122): OVER
Philadelphia Phillies, 88.5 (-104, -118): OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates, 67.5 (-115, -105): OVER
San Diego Padres, 93.5 (-105, -115): OVER
San Francisco Giants, 81.5 (+100, -122): UNDER
Seattle Mariners, 86.5 (-134, +110): OVER
St Louis Cardinals, 88.5 (-120, -102): UNDER
Tampa Bay Rays, 89.5 (-110, -110): UNDER
Texas Rangers, 81.5 (-105, -115): OVER
Toronto Blue Jays, 91.5 (-110, -110): OVER
Washington Nationals, 58.5 (-112, -108): UNDER
It’s June 1st and the Dodgers and Astros are projected for 96 wins again. :(
Division Winners (4% each): June 1st = -$22 (2 of 6 correct picks)
AL East: Baltimore Orioles (+2500)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins (+180)
AL West: Seattle Mariners (+360)
NL East: New York Mets (+155)
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (+165)
NL West: San Diego Padres (+120)
The Twins and Brewers both lead their putrid divisions. The coastal divisions have proved tougher, but if Baltimore pulls it out that’s a nice $800 payday.
Teams to Make the Playoffs (2% each): June 1st = $171 (3 of 4 correct picks)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+430)
Baltimore Orioles (+320)
Los Angeles Angels (+146)
Texas Rangers (+205)
Here we go, hitting 3 of 4 of these right now with the Angels the first team out of the playoff picture in the AL. Now we bite our nails for 4 more months.
Pennant Winners (2% each)
AL: New York Yankees (+370)
NL: San Diego Padres (+500)
The 25th anniversary of the 1998 World Series, but this time the Padres do the sweeping.
World Series Winner
San Diego Padres (+1000) - 3.5%
Sleeper pick: Milwaukee Brewers (+3500) - 1.5%
Most Wins: June 1st = -$20 (0 of 2 correct picks)
New York Mets (+950) - 1%
Sleeper pick: Cleveland Guardians (+3900) - 1%
The Rays currently lead the league with 39 wins, 10 games ahead of the Mets and 13.5 better than Cleveland.
Awards (1% each): June 1st = -$45 (1 of 9 correct picks)
AL MVP: Adley Rutschman (+3500)
NL MVP: Manny Machado (+1200)
AL Cy Young: Alek Manoah (+1500)
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola (+1300)
AL Rookie: Zack Gelof (+5000)
NL Rookie: Corbin Carroll (+350)
Home Run Champ: Mike Trout (+1000)
Strikeout King: Robbie Ray (+1900)
Stolen Base Leader: Bubba Thompson (+5000)
Corbin Carroll is leading all rookies in WAR at 1.9 so that’s leading. I think my other award winners are toast, except maybe Adley Rutschman. Zack Gelof is still in Vegas. It’s more likely the big league club joins him in Vegas before he joins them. Robbie Ray is out for the year and Bubba Thompson has 4 stolen bases, so those aren’t looking good. My best chance is Trout to get hot, Carroll to keep going and maybe come out ahead here.