2023 Predictions and Bets - All-Star Break UPDATE
aka your annual bonus
Time to check in on those preseason bets where I put $1,000 total. (Original post here). For the over/unders, I’ll use their winning percentage to project the final win total. For the awards, I’ll use the leaders in WAR for now. The pennant and Series winners won’t be scored yet. Let’s see how my picks stand at the all-star break. Below are the results but for the TLDR crowd my current winnings if the season ended today would be….
-$185.91
Going 0/6 on division winners and the resulting $240 loss is the killer. I went from correctly picking the Brewers and Twins to now both of them behind their Ohio rivals. The Mets, Padres and Mariners are probably lost causes while the Orioles still have a chance at +2500.
Team Over/Unders - (1.6% per team): July 11 = -$51.91 (14 of 30 correct picks)
Arizona Diamondbacks, 75.5 wins (-115over, -105under): OVER
Atlanta Braves, 95.5 (-115, -105): UNDER
Baltimore Orioles, 76.5 (-122, -102): OVER
Boston Red Sox, 78.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Chicago Cubs, 76.5 (-128, +104): UNDER
Chicago White Sox, 83.5 (+106, -130): OVER
Cincinnati Reds, 65.5 (-120, -102): OVER
Cleveland Guardians, 86.5 (-128, +104): OVER
Colorado Rockies, 64.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Detroit Tigers, 69.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Houston Astros, 95.5 (-108, -112): UNDER
Kansas City Royals, 68.5 (-115, -105): UNDER
Los Angeles Angels, 82.5 (-115, -105): OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers, 96.5 (-110, -110): UNDER
Miami Marlins, 75.5 (-122, +100): OVER
Milwaukee Brewers, 86.5 (+110, -134): OVER
Minnesota Twins, 84.5 (-115, -105): OVER
New York Mets, 93.5 (-106, -114): OVER
New York Yankees, 93.5 (-104, -118): UNDER
Oakland Athletics, 59.5 (+100, -122): OVER
Philadelphia Phillies, 88.5 (-104, -118): OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates, 67.5 (-115, -105): OVER
San Diego Padres, 93.5 (-105, -115): OVER
San Francisco Giants, 81.5 (+100, -122): UNDER
Seattle Mariners, 86.5 (-134, +110): OVER
St Louis Cardinals, 88.5 (-120, -102): UNDER
Tampa Bay Rays, 89.5 (-110, -110): UNDER
Texas Rangers, 81.5 (-105, -115): OVER
Toronto Blue Jays, 91.5 (-110, -110): OVER
Washington Nationals, 58.5 (-112, -108): UNDER
Can the A’s get hot and go 35-35 the rest of the way to make it to 60 wins? Outlook not great.
Division Winners (4% each): July 11 = -$240 (0 of 6 correct picks)
AL East: Baltimore Orioles (+2500)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins (+180)
AL West: Seattle Mariners (+360)
NL East: New York Mets (+155)
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (+165)
NL West: San Diego Padres (+120)
Note to self, next year just pick the favorites.
Teams to Make the Playoffs (2% each): July 11 = $171 (3 of 4 correct picks)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+430)
Baltimore Orioles (+320)
Los Angeles Angels (+146)
Texas Rangers (+205)
Still 3 out of 4 here, with the 3 looking pretty safe to make it and the Angels tumbling out of contention in record speed.
Pennant Winners (2% each)
AL: New York Yankees (+370)
NL: San Diego Padres (+500)
The 25th anniversary of the 1998 World Series, but this time the Padres do the sweeping.
World Series Winner
San Diego Padres (+1000) - 3.5%
Sleeper pick: Milwaukee Brewers (+3500) - 1.5%
Most Wins: July 11 = -$20 (0 of 2 correct picks)
New York Mets (+950) - 1%
Sleeper pick: Cleveland Guardians (+3900) - 1%
The Braves currently lead the league with 60 wins at a pace that projects to 109 wins, or 25 more than the Guardians and 33 more than the Mets
Awards (1% each): July 11 = -$45 (1 of 9 correct picks)
AL MVP: Adley Rutschman (+3500)
NL MVP: Manny Machado (+1200)
AL Cy Young: Alek Manoah (+1500)
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola (+1300)
AL Rookie: Zack Gelof (+5000)
NL Rookie: Corbin Carroll (+350)
Home Run Champ: Mike Trout (+1000)
Strikeout King: Robbie Ray (+1900)
Stolen Base Leader: Bubba Thompson (+5000)
Corbin Carroll is now climbing into MVP consideration so I’m thinking the Rookie of the Year is safe. I won’t be getting any other award right. Zack Gelof is still in Vegas. Robbie Ray is out for the year, Alek Manoah was sent to the instructional league, Mike Trout just had surgery and Bubba Thompson has 4 stolen bases, so those aren’t looking good.