2023 Predictions and Bets
aka your annual bonus
I’m taking a chunk of money I don’t need for the next 6 months and throwing it all over the preseason odds board at Fanduel (I’m not sponsored, that’s just the sportsbook that offered the best deposit match for this). The total percentages add up to 100%, with just under half going to over/under win totals. And for the World Series, I’m gonna make some money off the Padres who finally pay me back after decades of disappointment. Let’s go…
Team Over/Unders - (1.6% per team)
Arizona Diamondbacks, 75.5 wins (-115over, -105under): OVER
Atlanta Braves, 95.5 (-115, -105): UNDER
Baltimore Orioles, 76.5 (-122, -102): OVER
Boston Red Sox, 78.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Chicago Cubs, 76.5 (-128, +104): UNDER
Chicago White Sox, 83.5 (+106, -130): OVER
Cincinnati Reds, 65.5 (-120, -102): OVER
Cleveland Guardians, 86.5 (-128, +104): OVER
Colorado Rockies, 64.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Detroit Tigers, 69.5 (-105, -115): UNDER
Houston Astros, 95.5 (-108, -112): UNDER
Kansas City Royals, 68.5 (-115, -105): UNDER
Los Angeles Angels, 82.5 (-115, -105): OVER
Los Angeles Dodgers, 96.5 (-110, -110): UNDER
Miami Marlins, 75.5 (-122, +100): OVER
Milwaukee Brewers, 86.5 (+110, -134): OVER
Minnesota Twins, 84.5 (-115, -105): OVER
New York Mets, 93.5 (-106, -114): OVER
New York Yankees, 93.5 (-104, -118): UNDER
Oakland Athletics, 59.5 (+100, -122): OVER
Philadelphia Phillies, 88.5 (-104, -118): OVER
Pittsburgh Pirates, 67.5 (-115, -105): OVER
San Diego Padres, 93.5 (-105, -115): OVER
San Francisco Giants, 81.5 (+100, -122): UNDER
Seattle Mariners, 86.5 (-134, +110): OVER
St Louis Cardinals, 88.5 (-120, -102): UNDER
Tampa Bay Rays, 89.5 (-110, -110): UNDER
Texas Rangers, 81.5 (-105, -115): OVER
Toronto Blue Jays, 91.5 (-110, -110): OVER
Washington Nationals, 58.5 (-112, -108): UNDER
That’s 17 teams on the over and 13 on the under, so I feel pretty good about that. This year the schedule is different in that every team will play every other team, even those in opposite leagues. So each division opponent gets the other 13 times instead of 19 as before, which I think should depress some of the win totals and inflate some of the weaker teams. The Braves, Mets and Phillies lose a combined 18 games against the Nationals, so those will be played against stronger teams… in theory.
Division Winners (4% each)
AL East: Baltimore Orioles (+2500)
AL Central: Minnesota Twins (+180)
AL West: Seattle Mariners (+360)
NL East: New York Mets (+155)
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (+165)
NL West: San Diego Padres (+120)
The Orioles bet is gonna be the one that goes sour fastest I’m sure. But every year there’s a team that just launches itself forward by 10-12 wins and the O’s have a chance with their young lineup. The Yankees have a banged up rotation, one star hitter and then a bunch of rookies and fading veterans. The Rays are due for a dud and the Blue Jays will be the team that wins it if the Orioles don’t. I just like rooting for the Twins. I think the Mariners are in the same boat, that team that finally lunges ahead of the stagnant Astros coming off the World Series hangover. Mets, Brewers and Padres aren’t much of a reach except I just can’t bring myself to want yet another Cardinals division title.
Teams to Make the Playoffs (2% each)
Arizona Diamondbacks (+430)
Baltimore Orioles (+320)
Los Angeles Angels (+146)
Texas Rangers (+205)
The odds just have last year’s teams making it again, but we know that’s not how it works. The Diamondbacks were exciting at the end of last season and they’ve got an underrated group out here in the desert, if the bullpen gels. And one of those two, the Angels and Rangers, has to get their s*** together and claw their way into a 6-seed.
Pennant Winners (2% each)
AL: New York Yankees (+370)
NL: San Diego Padres (+500)
The 25th anniversary of the 1998 World Series, but this time the Padres do the sweeping.
World Series Winner
San Diego Padres (+1000) - 3.5%
Sleeper pick: Milwaukee Brewers (+3500) - 1.5%
Most Wins
New York Mets (+950) - 1%
Sleeper pick: Cleveland Guardians (+3900) - 1%
Awards (1% each)
AL MVP: Adley Rutschman (+3500)
NL MVP: Manny Machado (+1200)
AL Cy Young: Alek Manoah (+1500)
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola (+1300)
AL Rookie: Zack Gelof (+5000)
NL Rookie: Corbin Carroll (+350)
Home Run Champ: Mike Trout (+1000)
Strikeout King: Robbie Ray (+1900)
Stolen Base Leader: Bubba Thompson (+5000)
I’m all in on the Orioles here, because if they make the playoffs it’ll be because Adley Rutschman has a Buster Posey 2012 season. Manny is due, he’s been an elite MVP candidate since signing in San Diego. I don’t really think the AL rookies are that deep, so I’ll pick an Athletic who I saw a few times in the fall league. Corbin Carroll has $111million reasons to go out and run away with that NL ROY. Mike Trout hit 40 homers in like 100 games last year, this year he’s gonna ride that WBC adrenaline and get to 50 for the first time. Robbie Ray has been over 200 K’s consistently recently, but never led the league, which changes this year. And who doesn’t want a Bubba to win the stolen base crown?
Good luck to you… and me!